Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.851638 14.503604 17.461686 20.984503 25.043391 29.551047 34.912514
2026-01-11 8.183171 11.597505 15.833478 21.380983 28.353305 36.722081 47.413034
2026-01-18 6.239018 9.952019 14.958141 21.995728 31.407801 43.325039 59.289947
2026-01-25 4.663596 8.319901 13.642533 21.610411 32.849609 47.727873 68.444259
2026-02-01 3.709830 7.325493 12.958588 21.856777 34.975989 52.981109 78.832800
2026-02-08 2.861881 6.274646 11.967526 21.443934 36.015451 56.696510 87.235829
2026-02-15 2.182140 5.329324 10.952299 20.802588 36.566242 59.650117 94.626852
2026-02-22 1.841766 4.926880 10.759905 21.404937 38.982469 65.350800 106.094655
2026-03-01 1.451340 4.312299 10.077486 21.081662 39.874470 68.794826 114.407496
2026-03-08 1.180473 3.878070 9.647091 21.116849 41.301116 73.066527 124.065403
2026-03-15 0.883658 3.281094 8.782873 20.248362 41.121354 74.801254 129.944375
2026-03-22 0.758197 3.086086 8.710751 20.831922 43.428498 80.523457 142.077349
2026-03-29 0.615403 2.806699 8.441179 21.073351 45.280225 85.812393 154.102986
2026-04-05 0.504657 2.581454 8.257258 21.472592 47.461362 91.783952 167.516427
2026-04-12 0.423720 2.418495 8.187680 22.089503 50.068114 98.565098 182.456082
2026-04-19 0.318897 2.108703 7.680261 21.702900 50.750332 102.117134 192.318572
2026-04-26 0.256528 1.930570 7.477540 21.950094 52.641198 107.794750 205.814570
2026-05-03 0.189591 1.680909 7.013574 21.535863 53.189572 111.141713 215.563462
2026-05-10 0.133919 1.433595 6.486806 20.892350 53.208784 113.526394 223.759037
2026-05-17 0.111555 1.357725 6.475350 21.496734 55.809868 120.627171 240.122935
2026-05-24 0.080671 1.189396 6.113948 21.172369 56.440850 124.166124 250.516476
2026-05-31 0.060915 1.074792 5.904287 21.207674 57.826466 129.132216 263.503176
2026-06-07 0.038628 0.892692 5.384781 20.336239 57.168752 130.246144 269.808743